This is the 2025 commercial-painting trend note, updated in October 2026. The earlier version filled its market, wage, and commodity sections with totals and growth rates that were not tied to a source a facility can audit. Those figures are removed. A growth rate is not a cost for a building. For what to specify now, read the 2027 coating outlook and the mid-2026 trends note. This page keeps the 2025 themes that still change a specification.
Quick Answer
The 2025 themes that still matter are hybrid crews on repetitive work, low-odor coatings judged on performance data, a written record of the work, and the local air-district VOC row. Do not budget from a market-size table, a national wage average, or a robot payback measured in months. Price the surveyed scope.
Key Takeaways
| 2025 theme | What still belongs in a specification | What does not |
|---|---|---|
| Robotic application | Named surfaces, an operator on the tool, film-thickness records | A market-share slide or a payback in months |
| Lower-odor coatings | The product’s scrub, chemical, and cure data, plus the warranty | ”Zero-VOC” with no performance sheet |
| Digital records | Daily photos, batch numbers, and weather at application | A software brand with no closeout requirement |
| Workforce | Who is qualified to run the system you specified | A national hourly-rate table |
| Local VOC rules | The district, the coating category, and the grams-per-liter cap | A federal number copied onto an Arizona job |
Keep the theme, drop the forecast
Automation was a tooling choice, not a market call
In 2025, contractors talked about robots as if adoption rates and payback months were industry facts. They were not. A facility still decides surface by surface. Large flat walls, long floor slabs, and elevated steel are the places a robot or a drone can earn a place. Preparation, cut-ins, and any substrate that failed adhesion testing stay with painters. Require an operator who stays on the tool. The durable language is in Robotic Painting Systems for Facility Managers. The year-by-year read on what is actually in production use is in the 2027 robotics outlook.
Do not put a system price, a transfer-efficiency percentage, or a months-to-payback line in the budget unless the contractor’s proposal shows the surfaces, the crew hours, and the film-build records behind it. When the machine is down for a shift, the schedule still has to work.
Lower odor is not a durability claim
The useful 2025 shift was specifying coatings that occupied buildings can live with: less odor, a stated VOC content, and a cure window the facility can actually give the crew. “Zero-VOC” and “low-VOC” are labels. The submittal is the grams-per-liter number for the coating category, at the manufacturer’s maximum thinning, and the performance data for scrub, chemical exposure, and warranty. Compare products on those sheets. The zero-VOC note is the product discussion. The limit that governs the job is the air district’s, not a national average.
On a Phoenix job the architectural rule is Maricopa County Rule 335, not the wood-furniture rule. Table 335-1, effective January 1, 2026, sets flat coatings at 50 grams per liter, non-flat coatings at 100, and non-flat high-gloss coatings at 150, excluding water, exempt compounds, and colorant added to tint bases. Specialty categories are different rows. Confirm the current table before you copy a number. The federal architectural rule is a higher national floor and does not replace the county row. Details are in the VOC compliance note.
The record is the trend that paid off
Digital project tools mattered in 2025 when they produced a closeout a facility can reopen later: photos of preparation, batch numbers, film-thickness readings, and the weather at application. A dashboard with no readings is not that record. Ask for the same documents whether the gun is in a hand or on a machine.
Predictive-maintenance pitches belonged in the same bucket. Use inspection history you already keep. Do not buy a model that promises a failure date the building has not measured. If the coating is supposed to reject heat, ask for the aged rating, not a fresh-panel number. That point is in the 2027 coating outlook.
Labor and price tables were not bids
Published hourly rates, ton prices for titanium dioxide, and “the commercial market is worth” tables do not survive contact with a Southwest job. Wages, material, and access change by city, by season, and by how much preparation the substrate needs. Hot stucco and a monsoon week move a schedule more than a commodity index does. Get the price from the contractors who will do the work, on a defined scope, with a stop rule when the surface is outside the data sheet.
The same rule covers invented savings. An unnamed facility that “saved” a round dollar amount is not a case study. If a proposer offers energy savings, avoided repairs, or a shorter crew, ask which building, which meter or work order, and which coating. If they cannot show that, leave the figure out.
What a 2026 reader should do with this page
Treat 2025 as the year the industry talked about robots, lower-odor coatings, and software. Use this page for those themes. Use the later outlook posts for the specification language, and use the air-district table for the VOC number. OSHA penalty maximums were adjusted in January 2025 and were not increased for 2026; confirm 29 CFR 1903.15 before you cite a fine. The amounts are not a substitute for the safety plan.
Facility Manager Checklist
- Drop the market table. Do not put a coatings-market total, a CAGR, or a share percentage in the budget.
- Name the surfaces a robot may coat. Keep preparation and cut-ins with painters, and require an operator on the tool.
- Judge low-odor products on data. Ask for grams per liter, cure time, and the performance sheet, not the label alone.
- Copy the local VOC row. For Maricopa County architectural work, use Rule 335 and the current table, including specialty categories.
- Require a closeout. Photos of prep, batch numbers, film readings, and weather. A software login is not the record.
- Price the surveyed scope. Wage tables and commodity indexes are not a bid. The contractor’s number is.
- Confirm the fine schedule only if you need it. OSHA maximums did not rise in 2026. The safety plan still covers the people.
Frequently Asked Questions
What commercial painting trend still matters from 2025?
The practical ones: hybrid crews on repetitive or difficult-access work, coatings an occupied building can live with, and a closeout record. Market-size forecasts from that year do not matter to a budget. Price the building in front of you.
Are zero-VOC coatings durable enough for commercial facilities?
Some are, when the performance data matches the substrate and the traffic. The label is not the evidence. Compare scrub, chemical resistance, cure time, and the warranty, and confirm the product meets the air-district limit for its category.
How should a facility budget for painting technology?
Budget the surveyed scope: preparation, the coating, access, and the time the building can give the crew. A robot, a drone, or a software tool is justified when the proposal shows film build, crew hours, and what happens if the tool is down. It is not justified by an industry growth rate.
Standards & Sources
- Maricopa County Air Quality Department, Rule 335 — Architectural Coatings — Table 335-1 limits effective January 1, 2026
- EPA, National VOC Emission Standards for Architectural Coatings, 40 CFR Part 59 Subpart D — the federal floor, which is not the Maricopa table
- OSHA — Occupational Safety and Health Administration — penalty maximums are in 29 CFR 1903.15; the 2025 amounts were not increased for 2026
- U.S. Department of Labor, civil money penalty inflation adjustments — 2026 maximums unchanged from 2025, 91 FR 31358